General Election predictions

5/05/2010 12:46:00 pm / The truth was spoken by Rich /

I think at this point it's important for us to offer up our predictions for tomorrow's General Election. I've felt within my bowels that the polling numbers have underestimated the support for the Conservatives and are over-estimating the support for Labour.

I also feel that the surge in support for Clegg's band of vegetarian, nudist, Scientology oddballs will not manifest itself in voting numbers. There's a big difference between saying you'll do something and then actually doing it, just ask poor Arsene Wenger.

So, with this in mind we feel there's value in backing some of the more extreme outcomes and are thus predicting the following;

Conservatives 38% - 370 seats (7.8 on Betfair)
Labour 25% - 165 seats (9.8)**
Liberal Democrats - 25% - 82 seats (10.5)**
Others - 12% - 33 seats

Obviously it's impossible to translate vote percentages to seats won, so these are approximate, but with the aid of young Nate Silver's newly developed swingometer on essentially we, in my head, think the Conservatives will have a majority and the Labour party will be humiliated.

We're also predicting a turnout of approximately 68% (3.20), which will allow Gordon Brown to claim that there is an anti-Tory majority and he should still be Prime Minister while ignoring the fact that his party is hated so so so much more.

Elsewhere I still fancy Ed Balls to lose his seat (13/8 PaddyPower) and despite a Conservative majority I've laid George Osborne (1.40)as next Chancellor.

**Young Nate Silver has produced an updated prediction this morning using very similar percentages to my predictions, I have therefore replaced my seat guestimations with his predictions. I was not far off though in fact only ten seats either way for the Lib-Labs.

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