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I've been unable to sleep this night, so I've been researching the Winter Olympics hockey tournament and thank the lord I did because I believe we have ourselves some value. Now of course there are no guarantees in life, and 'specially not in sports wagering. All one can do is identify a price which is most definitely a wrong 'un and take the plunge.


Perhaps UK bookies just can't be arsed to price their books up using the same degree of scrutiny when it comes to North American sports as they assume no one's really going to be betting them, 'specially with hockey, so this might explain why all the American sports books have Canada - the host nation, as -200 (1/2 in proper prices) where as on Betfair they're 2.3 (5/4) and with most online bookies they're 11/10.

This is just plain wrong people. Wrong wrong wrong. I can only compare this to Brazil's price if they were hosting the World Cup. There's not a chance in hell they'd be odds against. And Canada shouldn't be either. They have the best line up by far and are host nation. I would price them at sommat like 8/11.

Now then, in the past Canada has struggled in the Olympics. This is because the rules differ slightly from the NHL. The emphasis in the Olympics is on skill, the NHL has traditionally been far more physical. But they don't want 6ft 5 toothless Canadians standing at centre ice battering another 6ft 5 toothless Russian. They want a fast flowing game with goals for the world wide audience. The less blood on the ice being mopped up the better they seem to think.I don't agree, but there you go.

Canadian hockey is traditionally very physical, so the Olympics have been a transition they've struggled to make. But over the past decade the NHL has altered it's rules and philosophy to emphasise the skill element too and divorce it from the old joke 'I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out.'

This is borne out by the numbers of Europeans in the NHL now, who used to be considered too soft for the NHL, mostly because they were. Now the two worlds of International and NHL hockey have collided and there's a good mix of skill and old school physical checking in both.

The Canadian team of today is far better suited to the rule changes and having won Gold in 2002 they're looking good to win gold again with a line up of fast skilled offensive players balanced with experienced old school players on the blue line. Also as this is being played in Canada, the ice surface will be the same as the NHL, smaller than Olympic standard rinks - which suits the Canadians style of play.

If you're bored here's some more details.

Canada are the only team who really have three genuinely strong lines on offense and defense. Their goaltending is great. Martin Brodeur is one of the best ever, future hall of famer and already a gold medal holder from the games in Salt Lake City and he's third choice goalie! With Sidney Crosby leading the scoring - the Lionel Messi and Kaka of hockey - it's difficult to see how they can be stopped.

Russia ranked number 1 by the IIHF and are an explosive but lopsided team - fueled possibly by some Vodka that could launch the space shuttle. They have the best player in the NHL in their line up - Alex Ovechkin - also Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexander Semin, Evgeni Malkin...good going forward, but can only skate in one direction - they're very short in defense. They have one good line but past Goncher and Markov they are struggling. To offer up a football cliche - not enough strength in depth. They've won the World Championships twice in a row in 2008 and 2009, but unlike the Olympics that tournament doesn't feature the elite players from the NHL.

Sweden are the defending champions and have freaky ginger twins Daniel and Henrik Sedin as their conjoined superstars. They are an old team though and I cain't see them lasting the pace. Nick Lidstrom is their captain, great player but I think he's older than me by quite a way. I think it's significant that he's still wearing the 'C' for the Redwings and they're sitting way back in 9th place in the Western Conference after making the finals last season.

The USA are a place lay really. Apart from Patrick Kane who can kick a taxi driver's head in with the best of them (even Dennis Wise) and is clearly awesome and incidentally scored for the Blackhawks last night - the USofA are sucking wind for this tournament. This is a transitional period for US hockey. Lots of greats have recently retired so the young guns will be using this as an experience gathering exercise. No miracles here I'm afraid.

Finally as a dark horse, I fancy the Czechs. With Jaromir Jagr and Patrik Elias they should score goals and also a very underrated goalie in Tomas Vakou. Nothing in between mind but still... Jagr at 37 is playing for a Siberian team now so obviously not the player he once was with that most stupendous of hockey mullets, but if he's in the mood he's still awesome to watch.

So these are the prices from a US sports book (converted into proper prices), skybet and betfair:



Canada have to be the bet for me. I think they are a huge price at odds against. I have had what I consider for me to be a big bet here. Russia's price is closer to the mark so I've left them alone. I fancy the Czech Republic as an outside each-way wager at 23.0 with Betfair also just for fun and why not?

Now I say again, there are no guarantees in sports wagering and this is not a tipping blog, it's just me stating my opinion that these prices are wrong. Good luck with all your bets should you decide to have any.

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Labels: Betting, Hockey