A tweet from Paulie two thumbs this morning has prompted me to offer up a quick preview of the post-season and possibly flag up some wagering opportunities.
As we speak my boys, my lads, my boys, the Chicago Blackhawks are sitting in first place of the Western Conference with 99 points. The Washington Capitals in the East and also have the best record in the league with 106 points with ten games to go.
This means the Caps will probably win the President's Trophy as the team with the highest points total in the NHL, which in turn probably means they won't win the Stanley Cup as this happens only a third of the time. In fact it's rarely the team that finishes top of each of the two Conferences that go on to win the cup, I feel I know why.
As the final weeks of the season play out, the teams at the top of the standings tend to coast through the games and are just looking to keep their players healthy yes? Meanwhile, at the bottom where it's all very scrappy and intense, the teams fighting for that last play-off spot essentially enter the post-season a couple of weeks early, because every game, to use a football cliche, is a cup game.
They can't afford to drop any points so they're already in a play-off mentality before the regular season ends. Sooooooooo, when the first round of the play-offs begin, the team that finishes top plays the team that finishes eighth, and it's usually the team who finished eighth who are the more focused and battle hardened if you will, so they often win the series.
Fortunately for my boys, my lads, my boys, five of the last six games are against teams scrapping for that last play-off birth. These games will be tough games and ought to allow the Blackhawks to hit the ground running as it were when the post-season begins. It looks very much like they'll play Detroit too, which is a team you don't want to be playing if you're even a wincy bit complacent.
The Capitals in the east have a similar run in to the Blackhawks, so as it stands, it's hard to see how these two teams don't reach the Stanley Cup Final - and given how the Hawks are a more balanced team and up to 15% more awesome, it's surely Chicago's year no?
Of course there are an awful lot of spanners that will be thrown at their collective works between now and then, so it's not worth backing either of them at the prices (both teams 9/2) - I myself am on at 11/1 and 7/1 incidentally - but we can use our theory to seek out the dark horses.
Phoenix for example have appeared from nowhere and are now just a point behind perennial chokers San Jose in the Pacific Conference. For a team that almost went out of business a couple of seasons ago - who'd have thought hockey in Arizona wouldn't be popular!? - they're looking really rather an intriguing bet at 25.0 on Betfair to win the cup.
They have a series of games coming up against teams fighting for their post-season lives so this will determine whether they have the sufficient volumes of spunk to seriously contend for the cup, but one might have a few shillings on NOW as this seems really rather trade-able to me, but will disappear fast in the next week if they win these games.
In the East, with a fully juiced up Ovechkin, the Capitals are so much better than the rest, but should he some how run out of steroids, one might take a punt on Buffalo at 26.0. They ought to avoid Washington until the Conference Final and I fancy them to give the two Pennsylvania teams a duffing up in the previous rounds as obviously New York teams are significantly more awesome than those Amish teams.
In other sports news, Mexico have a mighty clash this evening in Carolina against Iceland! A tie not for the faint of heart I think you'll agree. A blood and guts encounter to prepare El Tri for......OK it's a pointless and baffling fixture.
If it wasn't for Eidur Gudjonsen I'd have had no idea they even played football up there. I just assumed they sat around eating sheep's heads when they weren't stealing our cod. Anyway, if there's even a market for this game I'd lump on the Pablo Barrera to score in 90 minutes. This is such a pointless encounter Mexico haven't even bothered flying in the boy Hernandez. It's a squad players game, i.e. shit.
Finally, I shall lay Chelsea tonight. I feel given their current condition even against Portsmouth they will find a way to drop points. I will also be laying Aston Villa as Paulie two thumbs has flagged this up as buying money and since he was put on this Earth specifically so the betting Gods can have a good old laugh, this must surely see Sunderland securing their first away points probably ever this season.
Good luck with all your bets. I'm off now to the Subway sammich place. I haven't been since the weekend, they'll be worried about me.
Pompey are shit, but Grant will have the last laugh tonight
0 comments:
Post a Comment