Pre-Vegas betting

4/14/2009 04:06:00 pm / The truth was spoken by Rich /

With only five sleeps and forty snoozes until Vegas my nipples are tingling in anticipation. Thank the lord there's a veritable cornucopia of sporting wonderment on offer as a diversion to help the time pass.

As my singing squirrel predicted, Casey Stoner did indeed win the Qatar GP. Our 125/1 podium dark horse Colin Edwards eventually finished 4th which is an interesting result. He may represent some value in later races. It appears the fact that he hates his team mate James Toseland has motivated him somewhat.

They're off to Japan next. Valentino ought to start favourite again as he always does. He won the race last year, but ugly 80 year old Loris Capirossi may be the value bet as he has some how won three of the last four races. He had a pretty nasty crash yesterday, but he's a tough little fucker with a lovely looking wife and I'm sure once he's had his arse covered in cous-cous and had her eat it out, he'll feel right as rain.

He was riding for Ducati when he won those three races, but it just seems to be a track he likes rather than the bike winning it for him as young Stoner has yet to win there. I'll be in Vegas for this race, but will mooch about the sports books when they price this one up. My team of singing Squirrel are working on it as we speak. At the moment, laying Casey Stoner at something like 2.8 seems to be the bet. Possibly a place lay, but let's not get too excited.

* * *

Not only has the MotoGP season started, but the NHL play-offs begin tomorrow. I could barely be happier if I woke up with some tits in my face with a ginger nut biscuit londged in the cleavage. My lead prognosticating squirrel Samson and I have been researching the final 16's chances and it makes for very interesting reading people. Very interesting. Or not at all if you don't like the game. YOU DECIDE! anyway. You know what wins Stanley Cups? Do you? Well, do you?? I'll tell you. Goaltending people. Goaltending and beards. In the last decade which is as far back as I have been bothered to check, no team has won Lord Stanley's Cup after giving up more than 210 goals in the regular season, with the excpetion of 2006 when Carolina won it by beating Edmonton. They both had rubbish goaltending giving up 260 and 254 respectively. I prefer to forget this season ever happened. It occurred the season after a lock-out so maybe that explains it somehow.

Either way, I prefer not to recognise any successes by teams from the Carolina's even if they were originally from Connecticut. Good beards though to be fair to them. Good beards.

So anyway..going by the 210 rule there's only three teams in contention: Boston (boooo!), New Jersey, and San Jose. I'm extending this rule to 220 though because of rule changes which have made scoring goals easier and because I can't have San Jose as Stanley Cup Champions.

Into the mix I'm adding the awesome Chicago Blackhawks, the evil Detroit Redwings and resurgent New York Rangers. The Rangers can't win the whole thing, but they're currently trading at 50.0 which is far too big and desperately need to be backed to lay.

They play the Washington Capitals in the first round who are the very definition of a one man team. If Alexander Ovechkin has one bad night the Rangers can win and after that who knows. If they can make it to the Conference final their price would shrink to a beautifully lay-offable 10.0-ish.

Detroit were Champions last year. I do dislike them. They're the Manchester United of the NHL. They have such a poor defence this year but are also leading scorers. That kind of hockey is too wide open for post-season success, that's what I always say. I simply cannot see them winning with the dross they have between the pipes, but one can never discount them..see Manchester United's season last year for why. I will though, cause I'm in a saucy mood, other people who know people won't though. I'm quite sure I'll be having the last laugh.

San Jose are the President's Trophy winners. They have accumulated the most regular season points. They have a habit of having great regular seasons and having nothing left for the play-offs though. Only 5 out of 20 seasons have the PT winners won the Stanley Cup. Perhaps they just try too damn hard and have nothing left for the post-season. Like eating too many fries before you begin your Big-Mac. They'd also have to play the Chicago Blackhawks if both teams make it to the semi-finals and my boys have the Indian sign over them. Literally and metaphorically.

The Hawks are currently priced at 18.0 on Betfair. I know that young Patrick Kane is nervous about the post-season as it's traditional to grow a beard, and his testicles have barely descended, but he can play the game and so can the team: 264 goals and only 216 against...I must have a bet on them. I must I must.

With Detroit being so fragile defensively and San Jose being such chokers, despite my bias I feel 18.0 is a decent enough price particularly when one considers how much tougher the Western Conference is. A lack of experience is an issue, but can often be plus. Fearlessness will see them through oh yes!

Patrick Kane: No beard or fear

In real terms Boston ought to win, which will of course be an awful state of affairs, at 7.6 one must set aside all of ones disdain for these fake Irish spud faced chancers and take this price with a chunky wager before it disappears.

There's many a slip twixt THE cup and the lip of course, so some value wagers must be placed also. Oohh, Vancouver potential dark horses also (15.0) I hear you cry. Yes agreed, but I prefer the 18.0 for the Chicago Blackhawks.

So far then my wagers will be a reluctant chunk on the Boston Bruins. A few shillings on the Rangers at 50.0 with back-to-lay intentions and Chicago to win at 18.0 with no poncey laying off.

The end.

* * *

Finally the Champions League. It seems fairly cut and dried. Arsenal ought to qualify, Barcelona already have, Porto should see off a sorry looking bolt shotted Manchester United which leaves Chelsea to finish off Liverpool.

Liverpool aren't famous for their authors, except A. A. Milne ( I assume he's a scouser with a name like that?), but if Rafael Benitez can somehow reverse the 3-1 deficit, he'll have authored a story far more unlikely than Winnie the Pooh that'll be read by many many future generations of scouse kids to their kids.

Can't see it though, not just because scousers can't read, I just think Chelsea are too strong and Liverpool seem to be getting their excuses in early with this whole Gerrard is injured horse shit, which is thinly veiled code for "he's not as good as Michael Essien." I'll be wagering on a Porto/Arsenal double as those are the closest contests and the two teams I most want to progress.

Good luck with all your bets.

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