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You know what people, I don't usually have the patience for long term wagering - and by long term I mean longer than a few days - but today I've had a little wager on the Superbowl winner. I have you know... and I'll tell you who I bet on too if you're intrigued.

By my way of thinking, as soon as Tom Brady busted himself up, the season became a bit of a crap-shoot and the standings bare this out. It's a mess, no one really looks favourite to me. I can't have Tennessee, not while they keep insisting that Jack Daniels is proper whiskey. No sir, I'm afraid until they accept that their most famous export is just a mixer women put in coke I can't place my faith in their team.

I can't even have the New York Giants to repeat, because Plaxico Burress will be in jail and I don't really like them. I know there's some extenuation here because they are a New York team, but they're far too jingoistic for comfort.

My feeling is the winner will come from Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Baltimore looked very good against my team, the Washington Redskins last week, but have failed in their confrontations with the really good teams. Their four loses have come against three divisional leaders - (including Pittsburgh) and also Indianapolis. But though but, but, they're 18.2 on Betfair and Pittsburgh are 8.6.

Their records show that Pittsburgh are 18% better - the betting gives you a far greater return on your investment than 18% by jingo. A £100 wager gives you a total return of £1820 and £860 respectively no? That's 220% greater return if you bet on Baltimore. I think..isn't it? Mensa have told me I'm shit, so I'm not confident, but I think there's some logic in my sums somewhere.

Anyway....there seems to be more value in betting on Baltimore. To be fair to them, it's a creepy city...the woods where they filmed the Blair Witch Project are in Baltimore, but I won't hold that against them. They look to me to be a team that's growing in confidence, gaining momentum and are somewhat under the radar and so on. Pittsburgh have the harder remaining games too with two trips to Baltimore and Tennessee. Baltimore just have to see off a discombobulated Dallas team and a woeful collection of disorder in Jacksonville.

Obviously if they get beat next week when they host Pittsburgh this post will mysteriously vanish and I'll deny any knowledge of it, but until then it's Baltimore for me please. Thank you.